5  Decision Tables

What an operator, a regulator, or an insurer does with this — by situation

This chapter translates the pipeline’s outputs into actions. Each table is keyed to a situation, names the dashboard artifact that informs it, and states what the evidence does and does not support.

5.1 For operators

Situation	Dashboard artifact	Supported action	Not supported
Planning a new disposal well	Dose-response curve at candidate location’s radius band	Site/size the well below the volume where marginal seismicity contribution becomes material	Treating the curve as a guarantee — it is a population estimate with CIs
Felt event near your well	Per-event attribution panel (click the event)	Check your well’s ranked contribution and CI before assuming liability; wells with CI crossing zero have no resolvable contribution	Using a low ranking as proof of no contribution
Approaching a threshold	Per-well volume-threshold curve (click your well)	Trim volumes to re-enter the supported region; document the action	Extrapolating the curve beyond the red-shaded support region
Insurance / ESG reporting	Threshold-curve compliance over time	Causal-standard evidence of proactive risk management	Claims about magnitude reduction (the effect is frequency-channel)
SRA curtailment dispute	Attribution + threshold curve for the curtailed well	Evidence that a specific well’s contribution is/isn’t resolvable from data	Re-litigating the SRA itself — that’s the regulator’s instrument

5.2 For regulators

Situation	Artifact	Supported action	Not supported
Permit application in active area	Dose-response curve, radius band of application	Volume schedule conditioned on the curve’s supported region	Conditions tied to a single point estimate (use percentile bands)
Post-event response	Per-event attribution ranking	Targeted review of high-attribution wells instead of (or before) blanket-radius curtailment	Enforcement against a single well on attribution alone
Annual SRA review	Refreshed combined test + per-radius profile	Evidence-based widening/narrowing of response areas	Near-field (<7 km) rule-making from this data — inconclusive
Rule-making record	Evidence Scoreboard + Methods Defense	A documented, reproducible causal standard with stated failure modes	Presenting any single ψ as settled magnitude

5.3 For insurers and lenders

Situation	Artifact	Supported use
Underwriting an operator	Portfolio of per-well threshold positions	Risk-differentiate premiums on causal exposure, not just well count and location
Post-event claim	Attribution panel with CIs	Independent, model-based estimate of contribution, with uncertainty, from public data
Portfolio stress test	Dose-response curves by radius band	What a basin-wide volume-growth scenario implies for event frequency

5.4 The one rule that governs every table

Rankings and thresholds are robust; point magnitudes are not. The Evidence Scoreboard documents how the pooled effect size moved across data vintages while the direction, mechanism, and spatial structure held. Every action in these tables is therefore designed to depend on which wells, which direction, and which side of a threshold — never on the third decimal of ψ.